This paper Studies the space-time prognosis of Xi'an ground fissures. Historic analysis method, Poisson Cycle model, Verhulst model and time series analysis were introduced to,predict the time regularity of Xi'an ground fissures. It is obtained that the long active period is 90-140 years long, the middle one is 10-14 years long and the short period is about one year. Information value method was used to analyse the space regularity, and the predicting precision is 81.6%.
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徐光黎,张家明,佟永贺,徐从义,赵乃利.西安市地裂缝的时空预测预报[J].地震工程学报,1992,14(4):75-81. Xu Guangli, Zhang Jiaming, Tong Yonghe, Xu Congyi, Zhao Naili. SPACE-TIME PROGNOSIS FOR GROUND FISSURES IN XI'AN CITY[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1992,14(4):75-81.