强震前的“干热异常”与地温、降水波及应变弱停
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国家973项目(2008CB425704);; 国家自然科学基金(40775050);; 高原气象基金(LPM2008017)


The Abnormal High Soil Temperature,Less Precipitation and Weakening of Stress Wave before Strong Earthquake
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    摘要:

    对近30年出现在中国西部及邻区的14次MS≥6.9强震前1年多内的地温场和降水场进行了分析。发现有如下共同规律:①在震前1年左右东亚地区会出现干热异常(3.2 m地温升高,同时降水距平为负值),持续时间约为2-6个月,最大干热面积可达2-4×106km^2;②在震前0.5-1年左右我国的月降水距平%图和3.2 m地温距平的月际变温图上,可看到波长小于1 000 km的地温波和降水波,可称为"超低频应力密度波(应变波)",它是致使岩石破裂的力源;③在震前0-2个月应变波的波长会停止缩短,振幅变小,且波动方向可有一个近90°的旋转,是"应变弱停"的表现。以上可视为孕震三步曲。依据上述统计事实本文提出了强震成因的假设:地外核中有一股热力极不稳定的Benard上升流体对其上的壳幔层形成顶托,造成地温升高,对流热传导系数变小,形成干热异常;岩石圈中脆性层的应力不断增大,致使出现不稳定波(应变波);出现"应变弱停"时意味着强震即将爆发。

    Abstract:

    The relationship between the ground temperature field and the precipitation field within one year before the occurrence of strong earthquake(MS≧6.9,14 times in total) in western China over the past 30 years are analyzed.It is found that: ①A large area with abnormal high soil temperature at 3.2 m are identified one year before the occurrence of earthquake accompanied by less precipitation in this area.The abnormal mentioned could last for 2 to 6 months with a maximum dry area of 2-4×106 km2.② The fluctuation in both the soil temperature and precipitation fields with the wavelength less than 1 000 km are appeared 0.5-1 year before earthquake occurrence,namely,the so called "ultra low frequency stress wave".The wave is responsible for break of the curst.③ The stress wave weakens with a shorter wavelength and lower intensity,as well as a sharp turning of the propagation direction by nearly 90°.The above three stages could be called "the three stages for earthquake gestation".A hypothesis is proposed on the mechanism of strong earthquake based on the above mentioned facts as follows: There is a kind of unstable uplifting Benard convection in outer layer of the earth core with a horizontal scale of 106 km^2.The uplifting action push up the crust and the mantle.When arrives at the boundary layer between the earth core and the mantle.Following results are expected consecutively: The higher soil temperature field and the heat conductivity decreasing cause less rainfall.With the stress in the crust keeping increase a kind of unstable wave(strain wave) appears.The weakening of the stress wave happens right before the occurrence of the strong earthquake.

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汤懋苍,惠小英,郭维栋,李洁.强震前的“干热异常”与地温、降水波及应变弱停[J].地震工程学报,2010,32(1):99-104. TANG?Mao-cang, HUI?Xiao-ying, GUO?Wei-dong, LI?Jie. The Abnormal High Soil Temperature, Less Precipitation and Weakening of Stress Wave before Strong Earthquake[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2010,32(1):99-104.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-05-16