近场水位、水温同震响应特征及对地震的预测
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甘肃省科技计划资助(1606RJYA218)


Co-seismic Response Characteristics of Near-field Water Level andWater Temperature and Associated Prediction of Earthquakes
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    摘要:

    为了掌握MS7以下强震近场流体的同震变化特征,以岷县漳县MS6.6地震为例,分析震中300 km范围内数字化水位和水温的同震变化特征及与未来4级以上地震发震区域的关系,结果显示:MS7以下强震引起的水位、水温同震相对变化幅度不大,且持续时间短,形态以突跳型变化为主;同震变化的相对幅度在空间上没有显著的差异;同震变化的初始方向在空间上具有四象限分布特征,且与震源机制解的四个区域配套;同震变化初始方向向上台站集中的区域与未来4级以上地震的发生区域有关。由于震级偏低的地震相对于MS7以上地震其发生频率高,且近场研究范围较小,因此其在未来地震的预测上具有更加重要的意义。

    Abstract:

    To understand the co-seismic response characteristics of near-field water level and water temperature in strong earthquakes with magnitude less than 7, the Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6 earthquake was studied. The co-seismic response characteristics of digital water level and water temperature within 300 km of the epicenter were analyzed, and their associated relationship with the region where MS4.0 earthquakes may occur was studied. Main analytical conclusions were as follows:co-seismic relative changes in amplitude in water level and water temperature induced by MS<7.0 earthquakes were not large, and were of short duration during the last event, with sudden-jump being the main effect. Relative amplitudes of the co-seismic changes were not clearly different in different regions. Initial directions of the co-seismic changes were distributed in a four-quadrant form. The station concentration region where the initial direction was up was related to the region where MS4.0 earthquakes may occur. Because the frequency of 6 < MS < 6.9 earthquakes was relatively higher than that of MS ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, and the scope of the near-field study was relatively small, the near-field earthquakes were found to be more advantageous than the far-field ones in predicting future earthquakes.

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苏鹤军,曹玲玲,张慧,李晨桦,周慧玲.近场水位、水温同震响应特征及对地震的预测[J].地震工程学报,2020,42(1):98-106. SU Hejun, CAO Lingling, ZHANG Hui, LI Chenhua, ZHOU Huiling. Co-seismic Response Characteristics of Near-field Water Level andWater Temperature and Associated Prediction of Earthquakes[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2020,42(1):98-106.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-05-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-16