基于ANP-SWOT模型的城市应急避难场所发展规划——以兰州市为例*
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作者单位:

1.甘肃省地震局;2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院;3.中国科学院武汉文献情报中心

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甘肃省科技计划项目(18CX1ZA047)


Development Plan of Urban Emergency Shelters Based on ANP-SWOT Model——A Case Study of Lanzhou
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Gansu Earthquake Administration;2.Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences;3.Wuhan library,Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    合理的规划和建设城市应急避难场所可以增强城市抗灾能力,提高城市灾害韧性,降低灾害带来的人员伤亡和财产损失。在对兰州市应急避难场所的建设现状进行详细调研的基础上,利用ANP-SWOT模型对其发展规划进行分析。首先运用SWOT分析方法确定兰州市应急避难场所未来发展的内部优势和劣势、外部机会和威胁,其次运用ANP分析法构建兰州市应急避难场所发展规划的网络层次结构,结合专家咨询,通过赋值和对比分析确定最佳发展策略。结果显示,分布不均,数量不足、尚未形成专门的应急预案是制约兰州市应急避难场所发展的关键问题;最佳发展策略是加快推进兰州市应急避难场所的标准化规范化。

    Abstract:

    Reasonable planning and construction of urban emergency shelters can improve the city’s resilience, enhance urban disaster toughness, reduce casualties and property losses caused by disasters. On the basis of a detailed investigation of the construction status of the emergency shelters in Lanzhou, the development plan was analyzed using the ANP-SWOT model. First, use SWOT analysis to determine the internal advantages and disadvantages, external opportunities and threats of Lanzhou emergency shelters. Then use ANP analysis to build the network hierarchy of emergency shelter development planning in Lanzhou, combined with expert consultation, through assignment and comparison analyze to determine the best development strategy. At last, the results showed that restrict the development of Lanzhou emergency shelters are uneven distribution, insufficient number, and the lack of a special emergency plan. And the best development strategy is to accelerate the standardization of emergency shelters in Lanzhou.

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-26
  • 最后修改日期:2022-06-30
  • 录用日期:2022-07-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-02-07
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