基于InSAR与深度积分模型的南洛纳克湖侧碛滑坡模拟与危险性评估
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应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院

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国家自然科学基金(42374039);应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2024-18);西藏自治区科技计划项目(XZ202301YD0002C-01)


Simulation and Hazard Assessment of the South Lhonak Lake Lateral Moraine Landslide Using InSAR and Depth-Integrated Modeling
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National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China

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    摘要:

    冰湖溃决洪水是高山区极具破坏力的自然灾害,而冰湖侧碛滑坡是引发冰湖溃决洪水的诱因之一。2023年10月3日,印度锡金邦南洛纳克湖因侧碛滑坡引发溃决,对下游造成重大生命财产损失。结合遥感解译、SBAS-InSAR和深度积分方法,开展南洛纳克湖北边侧碛滑坡运动过程模拟与危险性评估研究,为滑坡引发的冰湖溃决灾害早期预警提供科学依据。利用SLBL方法估算滑坡的体积约1442万立方米。数值模拟结果显示滑坡的最大流速约32.5 m/s,最大堆积厚度约80米。利用灾后Sentinel-1A数据获取侧碛形变结果,识别出一个潜在二次滑坡区域,体积与第一次滑坡相近,目前处于动态平衡状态。但该区域在强降雨、地震等因素的作用下,存在二次滑坡风险。数值模拟结果表明,二次滑坡的最大速度小于第一次滑坡,但其滑坡物质入湖位置的Hvvmax值(流深H与流速v的平方的乘积最大值)与第一次滑坡相近。由于二次滑坡距离终碛坝更近且下方水深更大,因此仍有引发冰湖溃决洪水的风险。参数敏感性分析表明,基底摩擦系数和孔隙水压力系数对模拟结果有显著影响,因此需合理设置上述两个参数。

    Abstract:

    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are highly destructive natural disasters in high-mountain regions, and lateral moraine landslides are one of the primary triggers for such events. In October 2023, a lateralSmoraine landslide at South Lhonak Lake in Sikkim, India, led to a catastrophic GLOF, causing significant loss of life and property downstream. By integrating remote sensing interpretation, SBAS-InSAR, and depth-integrated methods, this study investigates the movement process and hazard assessment of the northern lateral moraine landslide at South Lhonak Lake, providing a scientific basis for early warning of landslide-induced GLOFs. The SLBL method was used to estimate the volume of the first landslide at approximately 14.42 million cubic meters. Numerical simulation results show that the maximum velocity of the first landslide reached about 32.5 m/s, with a maximum deposition thickness of about 80 meters. Post-disaster Sentinel-1A data was used to obtain the lateral moraine deformation, identifying a potential secondary landslide area with a volume similar to that of the first landslide, which is currently in a dynamic equilibrium state. However, this area poses a risk of secondary landslides under the influence of heavy rainfall, earthquakes, and other factors. Numerical simulation results indicate that the maximum velocity of the secondary landslide is lower than that of the first, however, the maximum value of the product of flow depth H and the square of flow velocity v (Hvvmax) at the point where the landslide material enters the lake is comparable to that of the first landslide. Due to the closer proximity of the secondary landslide to the terminal moraine and the greater water depth beneath it, the risk of triggering another GLOF remains significant. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters revealed that the basal friction coefficient and pore water pressure coefficient significantly affected the simulation results.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-28
  • 最后修改日期:2025-08-28
  • 录用日期:2025-11-11
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-31
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