STUDY ON PHENOMENON OF SELF-ORGANlZED CRITICALITY AND RENORMALIZATION GROUP THEORY FOR MID-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
DOI:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Earthquakes withdiverse sizes show the form or extension of diverse size fractures in the crust which is in a self-organized state. Let P0,P1,…,Pn be the probability of the form or ex-tension of fracture in diverse size rock bodies with certain scales. According to renormalization group theory,sequence {P0,P1,…,Pn} has a limit that may be 0 or 1,and if P0=P1=…=Pn, the limit will get the constant(P*)。The P* is a critical value,and if P0>P* then Pn approaches to 1;if P0*, Pn approaches to 0.
    P0 can be determined by statistics of earthquake catalogue. There should be P0* during the earthquake quiet period,and P0>P* during the active,therefore,P* can be determined as the value between the quiet period P0 and the active P0.Based on the conclution,a lot of renor-malization medels may be calculated and a model that its P* is within the range is choosen to gain a exact P* value. To predict earthquake,the P0 is worked out using recent data and judged if P0>P* not.
    The data were calculated in northern district of Qinghai-Xizang plateau and the P0 is about 0.3-0.8 before strong earthquakes,while it is about 0.1-0.2 during quiet. Therefore,the P* is about 0.2-0.3 and the medel that was choosen gives a exact P* as 0.2324.
    By this train of thought,a new way to predict strong earthquake is established.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: July 04,2017
  • Published: