关于甘、宁、青、新四省(区)强震年度危险性的逻辑函数判定
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ON JUDGING THE ANNUAL STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAZARD IN GANSU, NINGXIA, QINGHAI AND XINJIANG OF NORTH-WEST CHINA BY USING THE LOGICAL FUNCTION
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    摘要:

    在地震预报方法研究中,地震活动性及其触发动力因子的研究是目前开展最为广泛和引人注目的课题。但是这类研究成果具体用于预报仍很困难,其原因就在于地震活动的不规则性和复杂性。作者试图引进逻辑代数方法来改进上述研究结果。为此,本文研究了用于地震预报的逻辑函数构成的一般方法。作为应用,组建了甘、宁、青、新四省(区)Ms≥7级陆壳强震年度危险性判定的逻辑代数函数预报方程。该方程历史拟合率高,外推检验效果良好,可用于这些省(区)强震大背景的年度判定。

    Abstract:

    The logical algebra (Boolean algebra)has been widely used in a number of technical branchs. It is a pity that its application in earthquake prediction seems rare. So far as the research method on earthquake prediction is concerned, related to seismicity and its mechanical trigger factor is both quite widespread and noticeable, but it is still very difficult to apply the results obtained from abovementioned research concretely to earthquake prediction, because of the inregularity and complication in seismicity. The author tries to improve the results of abovementioned research by introducing the method of logical algebra. For this purpose, the general method for logical function which is adequate for earthquake prediction has been studied in this paper. As an instance for applying this method, selection 12 predicting foctors which consist of solar activities and seismicity on a global scale by means of the data in the period of A. D. 1914-1973, the predicting equation for logical algebra function to judge the annual strong earthquake hazard in continental crust in Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang of north-west China with magnitude Ms≥7 has been constructed. The historical coincident percentage for this equation in A. D. 1914-1973 is 100%, and the coincident percentage of the text of extrapolation in A. D. 1974-1982 is 88.9%, and this equation is useful for judging large background on annual earthquake situation in the abovementioned regions, This research indicates that the method of logical algebra function is one of hopeful methods concerning integrated earthquake prediction.

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刘鼎文.关于甘、宁、青、新四省(区)强震年度危险性的逻辑函数判定[J].地震工程学报,1983,5(4):20-26. Liu Dingwen. ON JUDGING THE ANNUAL STRONG EARTHQUAKE HAZARD IN GANSU, NINGXIA, QINGHAI AND XINJIANG OF NORTH-WEST CHINA BY USING THE LOGICAL FUNCTION[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1983,5(4):20-26.

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  • 收稿日期:1983-05-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-24