Abstract:In this paper the auther analyses four great earthquakes data (Daguan 1974, Bohai 1969, Songpan 1976 and Tangshan 1976, 7≤Ms≤8) and realizes that the long peroid creep phenomenon prior to the Songpan earthquake has not been isolate, it also exists for the Bohai and Tangshan earthquakes. Its aspects resemble one another in period (T:20-80s), in amplitde (A:10°-102μm), in energy(Ms:4-5 grade) and in wave propagation. But the creep Wave velocities were different; 1.1-1.2KM/s, 2-3KM/sand 3.5KM/s to Songpan, Bohai), the Tangshan earthquakes, respectively.
The frequency spectra changed with △, the disperse of the creep were different prior to the Songpan and Tangshan earthquakes. The creep sources were not the same as the epicenters, but near it. The time ahead of the earthquake occurrence was generally 1-2 days. It is interesting that there was no long period creep prior to the Daguan earthquake(Ms=7.1), but the special pulse of the earth(10-20s).
In this paper some kinetic analyses have been made only. Its results are the same as from C. H. Scholz, Guo Zeng-jian, J. D. Byerlee and J. H. Dieterich et al., but different from Chen. It may be useful to theory and practice of short and temporary predict on the earthquake.