云南景洪和越南莱州7.0级地震的预报
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PREDICTION OF THE JINGHONG EARTHQUAKES IN YUNNAN PROVINCE, CHINA AND THE LAIZHOU EARTHQUAKE (M=7.0) IN THE VIET NAM
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    摘要:

    本文提供了1982年12月、1983年5月在景洪东北先后发生的5.8、5.3、5.7级地震及1983年6月莱州7.0级地震的中期、短期、临震预报的实况和主要依据。中期预报是通过∑√E释放速率变化出现异常,确定本区处于释放加速段,用最优分割等周期分析法处理得该区活动段将延迟到1983年6月底。利用地震活动位置演变确定活动地点在景洪-江城以南地区。短期预报主要根据孕震过程中依次出现的三个北东向地震条带,b值从1.3下降到0.55,并参考了省内大范围Rn值突变异常,推算出未来主震将大于6.5级。按文献[1]广义调制模式思路,确定震源体处于受调状态,进而外推对莱州7.0级地震作出临震预报。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, circumstances and chief basis of medium term, short-term and impending earthquake predictions of the Laizhou earthquake(M=7.0) in June, 1983 and the Jing hong earthquakes (M=5.8, 5.3, 5.7) in Dec. 1982 and May 1983 were provided. The medium term prediction was put forward by the following:Anomalies had emerged in change of releasing speed of ∑√E. The stage in which ∑√E was picking up speed in this area was determined from this. Coming to the conclusion by periodic analytic methods-"Fisher" method et al. was that quickening of the release of ∑√E would last by the end of June, 1983. We determined by migrating regularity of earthquakes that earthquake would take place in the area where is to the south of Jinghong-Jiangcheng, Yunnan province. Bases of Short-term prediction is as following, Three stripe-belt of earthquakes of NE appeared in proper order in seismogenic process. Value of b came down from 1.3 to 0.55. Consulting sudden change of radon content inground water we calculated magnitude of future principal earthquake would be bigger than 6.5. We consulted the general modulation model of the reference[1] and determined place where is earthquake focus was modulated, thus made the impending earthquake prediction of the Laizhou earthquake (M=7.0).

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石绍先.云南景洪和越南莱州7.0级地震的预报[J].地震工程学报,1984,6(3):49-54. Shi Shaoxian. PREDICTION OF THE JINGHONG EARTHQUAKES IN YUNNAN PROVINCE, CHINA AND THE LAIZHOU EARTHQUAKE (M=7.0) IN THE VIET NAM[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1984,6(3):49-54.

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  • 收稿日期:1984-03-20
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-24