对天山地区未来7级大震的预测
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

基金项目:


A FORECAST TO THE COMING EARTHGUAKES WITH M≥7.0 IN TIANSHAN AREA
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    本文对1900以后,天山地区7级以上大震序列进行了分析研究。由M—T图显示,目前天山地区七级以上地震活动正处在第三个高潮期。对序列进行线性检验结果,否定了线性趋势存在。周期显著性检验结果,以α=0.2的检验水平得到3、5两个周期,并进行了周期趋势外推预测,然后对剩余值序列进行平稳性检验,采用高阶自回归模型进行外推预测。

    Abstract:

    This paper deals with earthquake sequence of magnitude over 7.0 in Tianshan region after 1900. It is shown by the M-T diagram that the earthquake activity of magnitude over 7.0 in Tianshan region is just the third activity period at present. The existence of linear trend is negated by the test. The testing result of the period of significance shows there are two periods which are 3 and 5 respectively when the test level is α=0.2. It has been done in this paper to have extrapolated prediction by these two periods, to verify the stability to the remained sequence and to have extrapolated prediction by higher autoregression model.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

朱世慧.对天山地区未来7级大震的预测[J].地震工程学报,1985,7(3):8-16. Zhu Shihui. A FORECAST TO THE COMING EARTHGUAKES WITH M≥7.0 IN TIANSHAN AREA[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1985,7(3):8-16.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:1983-12-26
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2017-07-04