地磁多项异常指标及其在地震预报中的应用
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THE MULTIPLE ANOMALOUS INDEXES OF GEOMAGNETISM AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
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    摘要:

    本文在近几年用地磁特征线法预报地震的基础上进而探讨了地磁"Z分量和向量T的27日滑动差"异常时间跨越式预报地震的两种方法及相应的预报指标。在一般情况下,地磁Z分量和向量T的27日滑动差△Z与△T在基线值附近无规则地跳动。但在南北地震带的南坪至吴忠地段的中强地震前,兰州地磁台的△Z与△T出现异常,其异常幅度分别为,△Z >0.2NT;△T<-0.1。异常时间△t ≥ 14天。据此可按异常时间跨越式法预测未来4.5级以上地震的发震日期;t=n×△t±1天,(n=1,2)。
    在近两年地震监视预报中应用上述方法的预报指标对1984年灵武5.2级地震和1985年宕昌5.0级地震作了较好的短临预报。

    Abstract:

    In the recent years,on the basis of earthquake prediction by means of geomagnetic method of characteristic,two methods and their indexes of prediction have been dealt with.They are the methods of the anomalous time of crossover of "27 days of slipping error for Z component and vector T".In the normal case,the average slipping error of 27 days of Z component and vactor T of geomagnetism ΔZi ang ΔTi can skip irregularly.But in this region,before the middle and strong earthquakes,ΔZi>0.2 NT,positive anomaly is shown continuously;ΔTi<-0.1,negative anomaly is shown.If the anomalous days of ΔZi and ΔTi are Δt ≥ 14 days,the occurrence day of the middle and strong earthquakes in coming days,according to the anomalous time of crossover method,are t0=nΔt±1day,in the monitoring region of this province.In the formula,n=1,2.
    In the past two years of earthquake monitoring and prediction,the three methods,as are mentioned above,were used to make a good prediction both of Wuzhong earthquake of M=5.1 in 1984 and Tanchang earthquake of M=5.0 in 1985.So a comprehensive analysis of the three methods mentioned above can not only help decrease the pseudoprediction and improve the ability of judging anomalies and predicting earthquake but also can shorten the earthquake occurrence day,from month's predictionto day's.
    K,the slope of geomagnetic characteristics is considered to reflect the physical process of the changes of underground medium structure and electrical conductivity.The average error of slipping of 27 days for Z component and vector T can eliminate the solar cycle impact and give a prominent plaee at depth.As for the method of crossover,there may exist some.rhyme to work together,which is still in the course of research.

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吴德珍,王仕明,赵志新.地磁多项异常指标及其在地震预报中的应用[J].地震工程学报,1986,8(3):45-49. Wu Dezhen, Wang Shiming, Zhao Zhixin. THE MULTIPLE ANOMALOUS INDEXES OF GEOMAGNETISM AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1986,8(3):45-49.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-30