利用模糊关系方程预报大华北地区的最大震级范围
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APPLICATION OF FUZZY-RELATION EQUATION IN PREDICTING MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE RANGE IN NORTH CHINA
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    摘要:

    本文选取了判别每年可能发生的地震的最大震级范围的16项指标,对大华北地区1960年至1986年Ms≥4.0级的地震(余震除外)序列进行了处理,给出了判别三种震级范围即Ms≤6.0、6.0< Ms< 7.0、Ms≥7.0的模糊关系方程。对此方程通过7个震例进行了预报检验,结果均与实际符合较好。本文还对1987年大华北地区可能发生的地震的最大震级范围进行了估计,结果为Ms≤6.0。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, 16 items of 4 factors used in distinguishing magnitude interval related to maximum event that might happen every year are chosen, and the earthquake sequences of Ms≥4.0 (in exception of aftershock) occurred in North China from 1960 to 1986 are dealt with. Fuzzy relation equation of magnitude decision containing 3 magnitude intervals, Ms≤6.0, 6.0s<7.0 and Ms≥7.0 are given. Seven event examples are used to inspect the prediction result of this equation. The result indicates that all of them passed through prediction inspection. This paper also made a estimate that maximum event of which magnitude would be Ms≤6.0 might occur in North China in 1987.

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陈大业,王秀文.利用模糊关系方程预报大华北地区的最大震级范围[J].地震工程学报,1989,11(4):64-70. Chen Daye, Wang Xiuwen. APPLICATION OF FUZZY-RELATION EQUATION IN PREDICTING MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE RANGE IN NORTH CHINA[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1989,11(4):64-70.

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  • 收稿日期:1987-06-11
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-07-04