Using the immediate burst precursor of large shocks and the distributive character of their time interval, we have studied the variation with time of the probability of immediate earthquake occurrence. The results show that the predicative level of single precursor is very low, but for multiprecursor, the comprehensive probability is able to describe the change before earthquake and a better prediction can made using it The conclusions were verified taking the Tangshan earthquake as example.
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田少柏,张文冕,杨立明.中国大陆大震临震预报概率计算[J].地震工程学报,1993,15(4):69-76. Tian Shaobai, Zhang Wenmian, Yang Liming. CALCULATION OF IMMEDIATE PREDICTION PROBABILITY FOR LARGE EARTHQUAKE IN CHINA[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1993,15(4):69-76.