以伽师地震为例试论临震预报的可能性与局限性
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TAKING JIASHI EARTHQUAKE AS AN EXAMPLE TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY AND LIMITATION OF IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
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    摘要:

    地震前兆十分复杂,时空分布很不均匀,某些地方在某些时候,有可能表现出较为明显的地震前兆,只要我们有相应的监测能力和分析预报能力,是有可能实现地震预报的.根据新疆伽师地震及我国其它几次地震成功的临震预报事实,分析了当前临震预报的可能性和局限性.最后提出,当前地震预报总体上尚未过关,主要是经验性预报,只要采取先易后难的战术,集中优势力量,对容易出现临震前兆的地震重点监视防御区加强工作,可能会有事半功倍的效果.

    Abstract:

    Seismic precursor is very complicated.Its temporal and spatial distribution is quite unequal, but in some places and during certain periods it may appear obviously.It is possible to predict earthquake successfully if we have corresponding ability of monitoring and analysing earthquake. Based on the fact of successful impending earthquake prediction in Jiashi and several others in China.authors have analysed the possibility and limitation of impending earthquake prediction in the paper.Finally.It is pointed out that because earthquake prediction is not successful generally, the predictions were made mainly by experience.In this situation,it might be better to take tactics of solving easy problem firstly and hard problem secondly,and to concentrate ascendant strength on the important monitored regions where seismic precursors would appear frequently.

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苏乃秦,杨马陵.以伽师地震为例试论临震预报的可能性与局限性[J].地震工程学报,1998,20(4):35-42. Su Naiqin, Yang Maling. TAKING JIASHI EARTHQUAKE AS AN EXAMPLE TO DISCUSS THE POSSIBILITY AND LIMITATION OF IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,1998,20(4):35-42.

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  • 收稿日期:1997-10-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-24