The fundamental principle and methods of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Poisson's model and the characteristic earthquake model depending on time are discussed.The comparison between two models and PGA maps of middle-eastern Qilian area are made.The results show that probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by characteristic earthquake model depending on time is more rational in theory than that by the Poisson's model.
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杨明,刘百篪.时间相依的地震危险性概率分析[J].地震工程学报,2000,22(1):11-16. YANG Ming, LIU Bai-chi. PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS DEPENDING ON TIME[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2000,22(1):11-16.