华东地区地震活动的加速模型分析
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THE MODEL OF ACCELERATING SEISMIC ACTIVITY AND ITS APPLICATION IN EAST CHINA REGION
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    摘要:

    地震活动加速模型是在岩石断裂理论和实验的基础上建立起来的,具有坚实的物理基础.运用地震活动加速模型对地震活动进行分析和预测具有很强的实用性.运用地震活动加速模型对华东地区及长南带地震活动进行的分析和预测结果表明,该地区本次地震活动期将在2016年左右结束,现在至2016年还将发生总能量相当于7.7级的地震,加速模型中表征区域地震活动特征参数α取0.4能适合于华东地区和长南带.

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    The model of accelerating seismic activity,which is set up on the basis of fracture theory and experiment of rock,stands on the solid ground of physics.Its use in analyzing and forecasting the future seismic activity is of great significance in practical application.In this paper,we analyzed and forecasted the seismic activity in East China region and seismic zone from Changjiang mid-downstream reach to south Yellow Sea by using the model.It is indicated that the present seismicity period will finish about in 2016,and earthquakes whose whole energy is corresponding to that of an earthquake with MS7.7 will occur from now to 2016.It is also indicated that the value of characteristic parameter α=4,which characterizes the regional seismic activity in the model of accelerating seismic activity,is suitable to East China region and seismic zone from Changjiang mid-downstream reach to south Yellow Sea.

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李强.华东地区地震活动的加速模型分析[J].地震工程学报,2000,22(4):419-423,435. LI Qiang. THE MODEL OF ACCELERATING SEISMIC ACTIVITY AND ITS APPLICATION IN EAST CHINA REGION[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2000,22(4):419-423,435.

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  • 收稿日期:1999-11-01
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-24