一年尺度地震预测效果与问题的研究——以甘肃年度地震重点危险区预测为例
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A STUDY ON EFFECT AND QUESTIONS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN ONE-YEAR-SCALE——AN EXAMPLE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ON EMPHATIC DANGER ZONE IN GANSU
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    摘要:

    分析了1976年以来甘肃省年度地震重点危险区预测情况及效果,探讨了与此有关的问题,认为:(1)19.4%的对应率反映了目前甘肃1年尺度地震预测的真实状况;(2)提高预测水平的关键是对某一地区地震活动状态与前兆变化的深入研究和比较符合实际的认识.

    Abstract:

    The status and effect of the earthquake prediction in one-year-scale on the emphatic danger zone in Gansu province from 1976 have been analysed.The concerned questions have been discussed.It can be concluded:(1)The corresponding percentage of 19.4 percent indicates the real states of the earthquake prediction in one-year-scale in Gansu.(2)The key to improve the level of the earthquake prediction is that the states of regional seismic activity and precursors variety should be researched and understood further.

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石特临.一年尺度地震预测效果与问题的研究——以甘肃年度地震重点危险区预测为例[J].地震工程学报,2001,23(4):370-376,394. SHI Te-lin. A STUDY ON EFFECT AND QUESTIONS OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN ONE-YEAR-SCALE——AN EXAMPLE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ON EMPHATIC DANGER ZONE IN GANSU[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2001,23(4):370-376,394.

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  • 收稿日期:2001-10-12
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-30