宁夏及邻区5级以上地震前中等地震活动增强特征研究
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STUDYON CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SEISMICITY ENHANCEMENT OF MODERATE EARTHQUAKES BEFORE M ≥ 5 EVENTS IN NINGXIA AND ITS ADJACENT AREAS
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    摘要:

    通过对1965年以来宁夏及邻区ML ≥ 5.0以上地震前中等地震资料的分析,发现大多存在中等地震活动增强特征.在A区中等地震活动增强异常结束后7个月内发生5级地震的概率为0.71;B区在3年内发震概率为0.60.发震地点位于异常分布范围的外围连线附近的概率为0.79.其预测效能R值评分为0.75.因此中等地震活动增强可以作为本区5级以上地震的一种中期预测方法.

    Abstract:

    Through analysising the seismicity data before ML ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Ningxia and its adjacent areas since 1965, it is found that there mostly is the characteristics of enhancement of moderate earthquakes before ML ≥ 5.0 earthquakes. In A part of the study area, the probability for occurrence of ML ≥ 5.0 earthquake is 0.71 after anomaly of the enhancement of moderate earthquakes in 7 months; and it is 0.60 in 3 years in B part. The probability that earthquake locats near the outer linked lines of all earthquakes in one enhancement of moderate earthquakes is 0.79. Its R -value is 0.75. So the enhancement of moderate earthquakes can be a middle period prediction method for M ≥ 5 earthquake in this region.

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任雪梅,马禾青,赵知军,谢晓峰.宁夏及邻区5级以上地震前中等地震活动增强特征研究[J].地震工程学报,2002,24(3):267-272. REN Xie-mei, MA He-qing, ZHAO Zhi-jun, XIE Xiao-fen. STUDYON CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SEISMICITY ENHANCEMENT OF MODERATE EARTHQUAKES BEFORE M ≥ 5 EVENTS IN NINGXIA AND ITS ADJACENT AREAS[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2002,24(3):267-272.

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  • 收稿日期:2001-09-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-24