高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用
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地震科学联合基金会资助课题197003


APPLICATION OF HIGH-DIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS WITH PROJECTION PURSUIT IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION
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    摘要:

    将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来,建立了地震PP综合预测模型.并选取祁连山地区作研究区,做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测.经展望式检验,合格率(预测误差≤ 0.5或≤ 10%)≥ 80%.文中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M ≥ 4.0)的预测具有更好的效果.本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度,并运用到其他领域中.

    Abstract:

    Combining Projection Pursuit(PP)and high-dimensional time series analysis, the synthetic earthquake prediction model of high-dimensional PP time series is built. Selecting Qilian mountain region as research object, its short-term prediction model of the maximum magnitude within three months is made. The qualified rate of prediction test is more than 80%(Prediction error ≤ 0.5 or ≤ 10%). In this paper, it is considered that the model with certain magnitude threshold (MS ≥ 4.0)is better accordding to the real cases. It is available for the model to increase parameters, dimensions, change prediction periods, and generalize to prediction in other fields.

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王琼,朱令人.高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用[J].地震工程学报,2003,25(2):103-111. WANG Qiong, ZHU Ling-ren. APPLICATION OF HIGH-DIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS WITH PROJECTION PURSUIT IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2003,25(2):103-111.

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  • 收稿日期:2001-11-14
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-06-28