Based on the review of researches on several models for earthquake casualty estimation in recent years,according to the empirical estimation model of PAGER system which is released by USGS in October,2007,two regional applicable earthquake casualty estimation models are developed using the loss records of 128 earthquakes from 1970 to 2008 in China.And using 234 earthquakes occurred from 1980 to 2007,a linear regression relationship between the number of the seriously injured and the number of death caused by earthquakes is established.At last,by comparing the estimation of casualty using the models with the actual number of victims in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,it is proved that the model can make approximate estimation.
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李晓杰,姜立新,杨天青.强震人员损失回归预测方法[J].地震工程学报,2012,34(1):44-49. LI?Xiao-jie, JIANG?Li-xin, YANG?Tian-qing. Estimation of Casualty in Strong Earthquake Using Empirical Regression Method[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2012,34(1):44-49.