三性法及静中动方法对甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震的趋势性前兆显现的回顾研究
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国家科技部公益专项(8-44);国家科技部公益专项(201208001)


Retrospective Study on the Trend of Apparent Precursors of the Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 Earthquake with the Triplet Method and "Activity in Quiescence" Method
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    摘要:

    针对2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县Ms6.6地震,本文用三性法、静中动两种方法,对其前兆显现、震前预测过程进行了回顾和分析.回顾表明,在2012年时,对甘肃东南部历史上8级、7级以及6级三个震级档的地震进行三性法分析后,预测在2013-2014年时间段内,天水地区可能有6级地震发生.圈定的地点是在天水为中心150 km的范围内.另外,注意到1987年1月8日迭部5.8级地震与“静中动地震”指标所要求与定义的震级和年份相近,因而以此地震作为“准静中动”地震判断地区,与该区域三性法所做的时间预测相配合,预测在1987年1月8日迭部5.8级地震周围大约150 km的范围之内,将也会在2012年以及2013、2014年发生一个6至7级的地震.而实际发生的岷县漳县地震震中距离天水123.8 km,距离迭部112.1 km,即该地震发生在预测的范围内.由于地震预测的复杂性,当用三性法以及静中动指标对全国和甘肃省的地震情况分析后表明,在别的地区还有更为显著的发震指标显现,出于危险区不能划得太多的限制,因而把针对甘肃东南部的预测列为第二个发震可能性的方案之中,遂在2012年只得出研究性的预测结果,没有提出预测意见.甘肃岷县漳县的Ms6.6地震实际发生验证,甘肃省首发的强震不是在一个最有可能的静中动指标所指明的地点之中,却在一个“准静中动地震”的地点发生.但该地震对三性法的震后验证表明,其方法还是有前兆性指标显示的.该次地震的发生,表明“准静中动指标”也是值得重视的预测指标.研究表明,三性法相比较常用的中期尺度的预测方法,它能在存在强震背景的情况下,在趋势上指出一个特定的时间段,这是其独特的地方,与多种方法结合后,将会进一步提高强震预测的效能.

    Abstract:

    The triplet method is an analysis method based on the time frequency of the M > 7.0 earthquakes.A specific approach is used for studying the time series of great earthquakes occurring in the past in a certain region by using a time series composed of periodicity,multiple periodicity,and golden section.If they fit well,we can use it for predicting the time of a future earthquake by the time series."Activity in quiescence" is a method for analyzing the seismic activity on the basis of considering the earthquakes in a low-tide period as a precursory index for predicting the earthquakes in a high-tide period.It calls approximately one decade when no M >7.0earthquakes occurred in the Mainland China intermittent period,then subtracts two years from both ends of the intermittent period to eliminate the influence of the start and the end of the earthquake climax;hence,the rest of the period is called the quiet period.In the places where M6.0earthquakes occurred in the quiet period,the M ≥ 7.0earthquakes may occur when the climax of the next earthquakes is reached.By aiming at the Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6earthquake that occurred on July 22,2013,in this paper,we reviewed and analyzed the apparent precursors and prediction process before the earthquake with the triplet method and"activity in quiescence"method.The results show that, after using the triplet method to analyze historical earthquakes of magnitude 8,magnitude 7 and magnitude 6that occurred in the southeastern Gansu,in 2012we predicted that an MS6earthquake would occur in Tianshui in the 2013-2014period,and the prediction location was withina 150km radius of Tianshui.In addition,because the magnitude and seismogenic year of the Diebu MS5.8earthquake occurring on January 8,1987were similar to the index of"earthquake of activity in quiescence",we used this earthquake as the index of a"quasi-activity in quiescence",made a time prediction with the triplet method,and then predicted that from 2012to 2014,an MS6~7earthquake would occur in a 150km radius of the location of the Diebu MS5.8earthquake.Because of the complexity of earthquake prediction,after analyzing the whole country and Gansu province by using the index of the triplet method and"activity in quiescence"method,we found that there were more significant precursor shows in other regions,so the prediction on the southeastern Gansu was just listed in the second program of earthquake risk.In 2012we only obtained an investigational prediction result,but not put forward a prediction advice.The reality is that the Minxian-Zhangxian MS6.6earthquake occurs in the location of a"quasi-activity in quiescence" earthquake;however,this earthquake shows that the triplet method and"activity in quiescence"method still display earthquake precursory indicators,and the"quasiactivity in quiescence"indicators are worthy of attention.Comparing to the commonly used prediction methods for medium-term prediction,the triplet method can point out a specific time period in the background of strong earthquake,which is its obvious feature.If combined with a variety of other methods,the triplet method will further enhance its efficiency of predicting strong earthquakes.

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郭安宁,郭增建,张炜超,赵乘程,李鑫.三性法及静中动方法对甘肃岷县漳县M_S6.6地震的趋势性前兆显现的回顾研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(3):522-528. GUO An-ning;,GUO Zeng-jian;,ZHANG Wei-chao;,ZHAO Cheng-cheng;,LI Xin;. Retrospective Study on the Trend of Apparent Precursors of the Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 Earthquake with the Triplet Method and "Activity in Quiescence" Method[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(3):522-528.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-03-31