中国西北地区东部地震序列参数与预测余震发生的关系分析
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宁夏回族自治区科技攻关计划项目(102164170);宁夏自然科学基金资助项目(NZ14228)


Relation between Earthquake Sequence Parameters and the Prediction of Aftershocks in the Eastern Part of Northwest China
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    摘要:

    对1970-2012年西北地区东部的51次5级以上地震序列进行E2/E0、(M0-M3)lgN3h值、K值和b值等参数的计算,结果表明:在震后地震类型初期判别上可优先考虑E2/E0计算和K值计算。E2/E0对主余型地震和孤立型地震均有较好的预测效果,且不受早期阶段余震数量的限制,当E2/E0参数判断结果为主余型地震或孤立型地震时,基本上可以确定该结果是准确的;K值计算对样本量的限制也较为宽松,通过震例计算发现,一般中强震后2~3天内,余震数量基本都可满足K值计算,且K值具有较高的判别能力,其计算结果也有很好的一致性和稳定性。参数(M0-M3)lgN3对主余型地震类型判断具有较好的判别能力,但计算条件较为严格,在实际工作中可作为依据参考。h值对多震型地震有较高的判断能力,能很好地为震后震情趋势的判断提供参考依据,但该计算参数对样本量要求较高,且其计算结果的稳定性和一致性较弱,因而建议该参数在实际工作中仅可作为参考。

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    In this study, we calculated the parameters E2/E0, (M0-M3)lgN3, h value, K value, and b value of 51 earthquake sequences of M≥5.0 in the eastern part of Northwest China from 1970 to 2012. The results show that priority should be given to the E2/E0 and K value calculations in making the initial judgment of the earthquake type after the main earthquake. There is a good prediction result regarding the mainshock aftershock earthquake type and isolated earthquake sequence using E2/E0. Moreover,E2/E0 is unrestricted with respect to the aftershock number in the early stage. Historically, when the judgment result was based on E2/E0 to determine the mainshock-aftershock earthquake type and isolated earthquake sequence, it has generally been correct. The restrictions on the K value calculation are also relatively light. Through earthquake sample calculation, we found that the number of aftershocks within 2~3 days after most moderate-strong earthquakes could satisfy the K value calculation, and the discriminating power of the K value is relatively high. The parameter (M0-M3)lgN3 has a high discriminatory power when judging the mainshock-aftershock earthquake type, but there are associated strict requirements and could be used as reference in practical work. The h value has a high discriminatory power when judging the multiple mainshock type and can provide a reference for earthquake trend judgment after the mainshock, but calculations by the h value require a sufficient sample number and the consistency and stability of the calculation results are weak. As such, it is suggested for use only as a reference in practical work.

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许晓庆,盛菊琴,马禾青.中国西北地区东部地震序列参数与预测余震发生的关系分析[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):598-605. XU Xiao-qing, SHENG Ju-qin, MA He-qing. Relation between Earthquake Sequence Parameters and the Prediction of Aftershocks in the Eastern Part of Northwest China[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(4):598-605.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-04-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-09-12