青藏工程走廊地震危险性对比分析及区划
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中国地震局地震预测研究所基本科研业务费专项(2016IESLZ02);国家自然科学基金项目(41630636,51408567)


Seismic Hazard Comparative Analysis and Zonation alongQinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor
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    摘要:

    潜在震源区地震活动性参数、地震动衰减关系对地震危险性分析结果至关重要。以中国第五代地震动区划图潜在震源区划分方案为基础,采用2类震级分档分别建立自编及五代图潜在震源区空间分布函数,收集4组青藏高原及周缘地区地震动衰减关系,采用不同组合对青藏工程走廊沿线的81个场点进行概率地震危险性分析计算,得到50年超越概率10%(地震重现期475年)的各场点基岩地震动峰值加速度(PGA),并转换为一般场地(Ⅱ类)PGA,对计算结果进行对比分析,并与第五代地震动区划图归档上下限值进行比较。结果显示:采用我国西部地区地震动衰减关系计算得到的PGA最大,采用云南地区地震动衰减关系得到的PGA最小,采用川藏地区及青藏高原东北缘地震动衰减关系时居中;在同一地震动衰减关系下,采用自编空间分布函数计算得到的PGA普遍略大于采用第五代图空间分布函数时;在震级上限为8.5的潜在震源区及附近地区,潜在震源区空间分布函数震级分档对计算结果有显著影响。综合分析表明,采用自编Ⅱ型震级分档空间分布函数方案与川藏地区地震动衰减关系组合方案的计算结果最为理想。最后,采用该组合方案对青藏工程走廊50年超越概率10%的基岩场地PGA及一般场地PGA进行了区划。

    Abstract:

    The results of seismic hazard analysis are significantly influenced by the seismicity parameters in the potential seismic source zones (PSSZ) and the attenuation relations of the seismic ground motion. According to the PSSZ map used to prepare the fifth-generation seismic zonation map of China, and by the use of two magnitude interval types (type I, type II), we established the self-edit and the fifth-generation seismic zonation map's spatial distribution functions of the PPSZ, respectively. By combining these with four groups of attenuation relations of the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its peripheral areas, we computed the PGA of the rock sites for a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 a (10% P.E in 50 a) (return period of 475 years) for 81 points along the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC). To do so, we used the China probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method and empirical equations to translate the general site PGAs from the rock site PGAs. Then, we compared the results with the archive limits of the fifth-generation seismic zonation map of China. These results show that the PGAs with attenuation relations of the horizontal PGA in western China are greatest, in Yunnan region are smallest, and in the Sichuan-Tibet region and northeastern Tibetan plateau are in the middle. When attenuation relations are known, the PGAs computed by self-edit spatial distribution functions are generally slightly larger than those computed by the spatial distribution functions of the fifth-generation seismic zonation map. In the area of the PSSZ, in which the upper limit magnitude is 8.5, and its nearby area, the magnitude interval types of the spatial distribution functions significantly influence the results of the seismic hazard analysis. Our comprehensive analysis shows the calculation results to be relatively ideal when using the self-edit spatial distribution functions of type II and the PGA attenuation relations in the Sichuan-Tibet region. Lastly, using this relatively ideal parameter combination, we computed the rock site PGAs of the grid points (0.05°×0.05°) in QTEC and used empirical equations to translate the rock site PGAs to general site PGAs. Then, with the aid of arcGIS, we drew the rock site and general site PGAs for the 10% P.E in 50 a zonation maps of the QTEC.

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苏永奇,马巍,马尔曼,吴志坚.青藏工程走廊地震危险性对比分析及区划[J].地震工程学报,2017,39(2):311-320. SU Yong-qi, MA Wei, MA Er-man, WU Zhi-jian. Seismic Hazard Comparative Analysis and Zonation alongQinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2017,39(2):311-320.

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  • 收稿日期:2016-06-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-16