Abstract:To study the characteristics of the recent crustal horizontal deformation in the northern segment of the North-South seismic belt, the GPS velocity field in the northern segment of the North-South seismic belt (33°~42°N, 97°~110°E) since 1999 was computed based on the GPS data from stations of the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China using the GAMIT/GLOBK software. These findings, combined with information on the seismic activities in the study area, suggest that M≥8.0 earthquakes will likely occur in the northern segment of the North-South seismic belt in the next 50 years; the fourth active period of earthquakes since 1900 with magnitude 6~7 may have already arrived, and in the next two years, an M>7.0 earthquake may occur; there is potential risk of M6 and M7 earthquakes in the Qilianshan, northern Xiqinling, and especially Haiyuan faults.