文章摘要
苏浩然,陈文凯,王紫荆,孙艳萍,马小平.基于改进引力模型的城市应急避难场所空间布局合理性评价[J].地震工程学报,2020,42(1):259-269. SU Haoran,Chen Wenkai,WANG Zijing,SUN Yanping,MA Xiaoping.Rationality Evaluation of Spatial Layout of Urban EmergencyShelters Based on Improved Gravity Model[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2020,42(1):259-269.
基于改进引力模型的城市应急避难场所空间布局合理性评价
Rationality Evaluation of Spatial Layout of Urban EmergencyShelters Based on Improved Gravity Model
投稿时间:2019-07-05  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2020.01.259
中文关键词: 城市;应急管理;避难场所;改进引力模型;可达性;拥挤度
英文关键词: city;emergency management;emergency shelter;improved gravity model;accessibility;crowded degree
基金项目:“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504104);四川地震科技创新团队专项(201901)
作者单位E-mail
苏浩然 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000  
陈文凯 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000 cwk2000@yeah.net 
王紫荆 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000  
孙艳萍 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000  
马小平 中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000  
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中文摘要:
      应急避难场所是人员疏散、救助和安置的重要载体,其空间布局合理与否直接影响到城市抵御灾害的能力。可达性和拥挤度作为居民点与应急避难场所相互作用的关键指标,建立其合理的评价方法,对城市应急避难场所均衡布局具有重要参考价值。该文引入人口规模影响因子、应急避难场所服务能力和极限距离三个参数改进引力模型,以兰州市城关区部分区域为例,在不同出行极限距离条件下,分析应急避难场所对居民点的吸引力,从应急避难场所的可达性和拥挤度两个方面评价城市应急避难场所空间分布合理性。研究结果表明:研究区应急避难场所空间分布不均衡,不能完全满足当前疏散人口的需求;出行极限距离较短时(500 m和1 000 m),大部分区域可达性低,西南部、东北部的应急避难场所拥挤度差异显著;出行极限距离为2 000 m时,可达性表现为由东北向西南衰减的趋势,拥挤度反之,各应急避难场所拥挤度均低于0.4人/m2。改进的引力模型综合考虑距离的衰减、应急避难场所服务能力和居民点人口,能有效地测定应急避难场所可达性和拥挤度,可以更全面可靠地评价应急避难场所空间布局合理性。
英文摘要:
      Emergency shelters are important for the evacuation, rescue, and resettlement of citizens, and their spatial layout directly affects the ability of a city to resist disasters. Accessibility and the degree of potential crowding are two key indicators relating to the interaction between the size of the residential area and the emergency shelter; therefore, establishing a reasonable method of evaluating these factors is important to provide a reference value for the design and balanced layout of such shelters. In this paper, three parameters are introduced to improve the gravity model:the population-scale influence factor, the service capacity of emergency shelter, and the travel limit distance. The Chengguan district of Lanzhou City is used as an example for evaluating the spatial layout rationality of urban emergency shelters with respect to accessibility and the potential degree of crowding under different travel limit distances. The results show that there is an unbalanced spatial distribution of emergency shelters in the study area, which would not fully meet the evacuation needs of the current population. With short travel limit distances (500 m and 1 000 m), the accessibility for people in most areas is low, and there are significantly different degrees of potential crowding between the southwest and northeast. With a travel limit distance of 2 000 m, accessibility shows an attenuating trend from northeast to southwest, and the degree of potential crowding is reversed, the crowded degree of each emergency shelter is less than 0.4 person/m2. The improved gravity model comprehensively considers the attenuation of distance, the service capacity of emergency shelters, and the population of the residential area, and it can effectively measure the accessibility of emergency shelters and the potential crowding degree; it can thus be used to reliably evaluate the rationality of their spatial layout.
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