基于震害模拟及现场调查的银川4.8级、4.6级地震震害分析
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宁夏回族自治区地震局

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宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划重点项目(2024BEG02033);宁夏自然科学基金(2023AAC03960); 2024年度宁夏回族自治区青年科技托举人才培养项目


Analysis of Earthquake Damages of the Earthquakes with Magnitudes 4.8 and 4.6 in Yinchuan Based on Earthquake Disaster Simulation and Field Investigation
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Earthquake Agency of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

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    摘要:

    2025年1月2日在宁夏银川断陷盆地中部的永宁县和金凤区先后发生4.8级和4.6级两次地震,给社会和经济造成极大影响。为快速获取两次地震震害以及进一步开展后续区域内抗震设防工作,本文在精细化的地震动模型、地质模型和建筑物三维模型构建的基础上,采用非线性弹塑性时程分析方法实现了地震重点区域建筑群震害模拟分析。结果表明,震中5km区域建筑物损伤较为集中,主要表现为老旧建筑及自建房抗震能力不足所导致的轻微破坏,震中最大烈度为Ⅵ度,但未出现中度及以上破坏。震害模拟结果进一步揭示了盆地沉积层对地震动的放大效应及其对人员心理的影响。本文结果可为老旧建筑存量丰富的城市抗震韧性及灾害应对能力提升,城市直下型地震的应急处置和风险防控提供了重要参考。

    Abstract:

    On January 2, 2025, two earthquakes of magnitude 4.8 and 4.6 occurred successively in Yongning County and Jinfeng District, located in the central part of the Yinchuan Fault Basin in Ningxia, causing significant social and economic impacts. To quickly obtain the seismic damage from these two earthquakes and further carry out subsequent seismic fortification work in the region, this paper realizes the simulation and analysis of seismic damage to building clusters in key earthquake-affected areas using the nonlinear elastoplastic time-history analysis method, based on the construction of refined ground motion models, geological models, and three-dimensional building models.The results show that building damage is relatively concentrated in the area within 5km of the epicenter, mainly manifested as minor damage caused by insufficient seismic resistance capacity of old buildings and self-built houses. The maximum intensity at the epicenter is VI degree, with no moderate or more severe damage observed. The seismic damage simulation results further reveal the amplification effect of the basin"s sedimentary layers on ground motion and their impact on people"s psychology.The results of this paper can provide important references for improving the seismic resilience and disaster response capabilities of cities with a large stock of old buildings, as well as for emergency response and risk prevention and control of urban direct earthquakes.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-14
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-20
  • 录用日期:2025-11-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-19
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