2025年1月7日西藏定日6.8级地震长波辐射异常
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作者:
作者单位:

1.中国地震局兰州地震研究所, 甘肃 兰州 730000 ;2.甘肃兰州地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站, 甘肃 兰州 730000

作者简介:

宫逸飞(2001-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事热红外遥感方面研究。E-mail:18717313919@163.com。

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中图分类号:

P315.7;TP79

基金项目:

甘肃省自然科学基金(23JRRA1566);甘肃省科技重大专项计划(21ZD4FA011)


Outgoing longwave radiation anomaliesbefore the Dingri, Xizang M6.8 earthquake on January 7, 2025
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA, Lanzhou 730000 , Gansu, China ;2.Gansu Lanzhou Geophysics National Observation and Research Station, Lanzhou 730000 , Gansu, China

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    摘要:

    为揭示地震孕育过程中射出长波辐射(OLR)异常现象及其形成机理,结合欧洲中期天气预报中心再分析数据集,应用风云系列静止卫星的OLR数据,采用小波变换和功率谱估计法,对2025年定日M6.8地震的OLR信息进行研究分析。结果表明:(1)在定日M6.8地震发生前约90天(即2024年10月9日),震中区附近开始出现显著的OLR功率谱异常现象,并于2024年10月12日达到峰值,且峰值持续偏离多年平均值和两倍标准差的时间分别达32天和9天;异常范围主要集中在以震中为中心的三个区域,其中最显著的区域为震中西北部的当惹雍错—定日断裂带和雅鲁藏布江断裂带,其最大相对功率谱幅值高达10.4;(2)在OLR功率谱达峰值时,震中附近呈现出地表气温偏低、总云量较高、地表潜热通量较高及总降水量较少的气象条件,大气中水汽含量显著不足;这些气象条件并不利于OLR增强,初步认为其异常与大气环境条件无直接关联,更可能归因于震前区域构造应力的累积与活动构造的强烈作用。定日M6.8地震前出现的OLR功率谱异常特征在持续时间、范围、形态方面与已有研究结果基本一致,对强震预测预报中的时间和地点判定具有一定的参考意义。

    Abstract:

    To investigate the anomalies and formation mechanisms of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) during earthquake preparation, this study employs wavelet transform and power spectrum estimation to analyze the OLR information related to the 2025 M6.8 Dingri earthquake on the basis of the OLR data from the Fengyun geostationary satellites and reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The results indicate that (1) approximately 90 days before the earthquake (around October 9, 2024), a significant OLR power spectrum anomaly began to appear near the epicentral area. This anomaly peaked on October 12, 2024, with its intensity persistently deviating from the multiyear average and exceeding two standard deviations for 32 and 9 days, respectively. The anomalous area was primarily concentrated in three zones centered at the epicenter, with the most prominent zone located over the Tangra Yumco—Dingri and Yarlung Zangbo River fault zones northwest of the epicenter, exhibiting an anomaly amplitude as high as 10.4 times the normal level. (2) At the peak of the OLR power spectrum, meteorological conditions near the epicenter were characterized by low surface air temperature, high total cloud cover and surface latent heat flux, and low total precipitation, coupled with a significant deficit in atmospheric water vapor content. These conditions are inconducive to OLR enhancement, preliminarily suggesting that the anomalies were not directly related to atmospheric environmental conditions but more likely attributable to the accumulation of regional tectonic stress and the intense activity of active structures before the earthquake. The spatiotemporal characteristics of OLR power spectrum anomalies before the Dingri M6.8 earthquake are largely consistent with previous findings, offering a reference for determining the timing and location of strong earthquake predictions.

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宫逸飞,郭晓,张元生.2025年1月7日西藏定日6.8级地震长波辐射异常[J].地震工程学报,2026,(2):451-460. GONG Yifei, GUO Xiao, ZHANG Yuansheng. Outgoing longwave radiation anomaliesbefore the Dingri, Xizang M6.8 earthquake on January 7, 2025[J]. China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2026,(2):451-460.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-10
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-04
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