基于建筑震害预测的震后避难人口预测研究进展
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作者单位:

1.中国城市规划设计研究院雄安研究院, 河北 雄安新区 071703 ;2.北京林业大学 水土保持学院, 北京 100091 ;3.中规院(北京)规划设计有限公司, 北京 100037

作者简介:

沈寅祥(2003-),男,本科,土木工程专业。E-mail:215200834@qq.com。

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中图分类号:

P315.9;TU984

基金项目:

住房和城乡建设部科技计划项目(2020-R-007,2022-K-048)


Research progress on post-earthquake evacuee predictionbased on building seismic damage prediction
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Xiong'an Research Institute, China Academy of Urban Planning and Design, Xiong'an New Area 071703 , Hebei, China ; 2.School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100091 , China ;3.CAUPD Beijing Planning and Design Consultants Ltd., Beijing 100037 , China

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    摘要:

    人是地震灾害发生时承受灾情的主要载体,同时也是地震灾后应急响应和快速救援的核心对象。准确预测震后避难人口的数量及空间分布,是地震避难场所规划建设及避难救援工作开展的重要依据。震后避难人口的数量及其空间分布与建筑地震破坏情况密切相关。建筑震害预测方法主要分为三类:基于历史震害经验的预测方法、基于物理结构地震损伤模拟分析的预测方法以及震后建筑震害快速预测方法。利用建筑震害预测得到的震害指数或震害矩阵以及城市建筑、人口信息建立震后避难人口预测方法,主要分为数量预测方法和比例预测方法。其中,前者更适用于预测城市总体的震后避难人口数量,后者可预测城市整体或某个单元现状及规划期末的震后避难人口比例。然而,现有方法均不满足韧性城市建设对避难人口空间尺度和时间尺度的精细化要求。随着建筑震害预测技术发展及针对避难模式研究的深入,震后避难人口的预测技术将向时空精细化、避难人群分类精准化及震后应急响应的快速化发展,可更好地支撑韧性城市建设。

    Abstract:

    Humans bear the brunt of disaster impacts during earthquakes, making them the central focus for post-earthquake emergency response and rapid rescue operations. Predicting the number of individuals seeking shelter after an earthquake is essential for effective planning and construction of earthquake shelters, as well as for coordinating shelter and rescue operations. The number and distribution of these individuals are directly related to the seismic damage sustained by buildings. Prediction methods for building seismic damage fall into three main categories: empirical methods based on historical earthquake damage, physical structural simulation analyses, and rapid post-earthquake damage prediction techniques. Using seismic damage indices or damage matrices derived from these predictions, along with urban building and population data, two primary methods for forecasting post-earthquake shelter-seeking populations have been established, namely quantitative and proportional. Quantitative prediction methods are better suited for estimating the total number of evacuees in a city, whereas proportional prediction methods can predict the proportion of evacuees both citywide and in specific areas at present and throughout a planning period. However, both methods currently lack the necessary spatial and temporal resolution required for resilient city development. With advancements in building seismic damage prediction technologies and deeper insights into evacuation behaviors, techniques for predicting post-earthquake shelter-seeking populations are evolving toward improved temporal-spatial accuracy, more precise categorization of affected groups, and expedited predictions during post-earthquake emergencies, thereby enhancing support for the development of resilient cities.

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引用本文

沈寅祥,陈志芬.基于建筑震害预测的震后避难人口预测研究进展[J].地震工程学报,2026,48(3):731-740. DOI:10.20000/j.1000-0844.20240125001

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  • 收稿日期:2024-01-25
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-01
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