强震发生前主动源观测走时异常机理研究
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作者:
作者单位:

1.中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃 兰州 730000 ;2.甘肃兰州地球物理野外科学观测研究站,甘肃 兰州 730000

作者简介:

李通(1985-),男,工程师,主要从事地震监测和气枪主动源观测与应用研究。E-mail:798480835@qq.com。

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中图分类号:

P315.7

基金项目:

甘肃省科技重大专项(21ZD4FA011);国家自然科学基金(41504050,41574044);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(LISCEA202507);中央级公益性科研院所基本业务费专项(LISCEA202401)


Mechanism of travel-time anomalies observed by active sources before strong earthquakes
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Lanzhou Institute of Seismology, CEA, Lanzhou 730000 , Gansu, China ;2.Gansu Lanzhou Geophysics National Observation and Research Station, Lanzhou 730000 , Gansu, China

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    摘要:

    我国已在云南、新疆、甘肃等地相继建设了 4 个主动源(即大容量气枪可控震源)激发平台,并获取了长期连续的观测数据。通过对多次强震孕育过程的监测,研究发现震前地下介质波速存在显著异常变化,且震相走时呈现典型的“V”型特征变化。为揭示这一现象的物理机制,基于岩石裂纹波速模型,将岩石受力演化过程划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ两个阶段,分别探讨不同阶段下岩石压缩因子、破碎化程度因子、波速、应力及裂纹的动态变化规律。利用该模型的数学公式,计算介质波速及震相走时在两阶段的实际变化趋势。计算结果表明,理论结果不仅与岩石力学理论和实验数据高度吻合,还与主动源观测到的“V”型走时变化特征一致。研究结果可为强震前兆波速异常的定量解释提供理论支撑,并能深化对震前地下介质变化机制的认识,对地震中短期预测具有重要科学意义。

    Abstract:

    In this study,“active source” refers to large-volume airgun controllable sources. China has successively established four active source excitation platforms in regions including Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Gansu, through which long-term continuous observation data have been obtained. Monitoring of multiple strong earthquake preparation processes has revealed significant anomalous changes in subsurface medium wave velocity prior to earthquakes, with seismic phase travel times exhibiting a characteristic “V”-shaped variation. To reveal the physical mechanism of this phenomenon, this study employs a rock crack wave velocity model to divide the stress evolution process in rocks into Stage Ⅰ and Stage Ⅱ and investigates the dynamic variation patterns of rock compressibility factor, fragmentation degree factor, wave velocity, stress, and crack development in these two stages. Using the mathematical formulas of this model, the actual variation trends of medium wave velocity and seismic phase travel time in both stages were calculated. The calculation results show that the theoretical outcomes are not only highly consistent with rock mechanics theory and experimental data but also align with the “V”-shaped travel-time variation characteristics observed by active sources. This research (i) provides theoretical support for the quantitative interpretation of precursory wave velocity anomalies before strong earthquakes and (ii) enhances the understanding of the mechanisms behind subsurface medium changes prior to earthquakes, thus holding significant scientific importance for mediumto short-term earthquake prediction.

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引用本文

李通,张元生,刘旭宙,等 . 强震发生前主动源观测走时异常机理研究[J]. 地震工程学报,2026,48(4):918-925. DOI:10.20000/ j.1000-0844.20250126003

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-26
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-12
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