考虑场地-建筑群地震相互作用的区域地震经济损失预测模型
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四川大学 建筑与环境学院 深地科学与工程教育部重点实验室,四川 成都 610065

作者简介:

张玮洁(1999-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事建筑群地震经济损失预测方面的研究。E-mail:weijiezhang@stu.scu.edu.cn。

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中图分类号:

TU352

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52008275)


Regional seismic economic loss prediction model considering soil-structure cluster interaction
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MOE Key Laboratory of Deep Earth Science and Engineering, College of Architecture and Environment,Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065 , Sichuan, China

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    摘要:

    提出一种区域地震经济损失预测模型创新方法,通过整合区域建筑特征参数与地震动强度指标,实现大规模震害损失数据的快速生成,为区域地震风险评估提供可靠的数据支撑。研究的技术路线包含三个核心模块:(1)基础数据构建方面,基于考虑建筑-场地相互作用(SSCI)的多自由度结构简化模型,搭建震害模拟框架,结合 FEMA P-58 规范,实现建筑构件损伤与损失的高精度计算;(2)数据增强环节,针对传统方法中样本数据不足的瓶颈问题,提出改进型数据增广算法,通过特征空间重构与分布优化技术,生成高保真度的模拟损失数据;(3)模型构建阶段,建立基于高斯过程回归的区域损失预测模型,融合建筑功能类型、空间分布等特征变量,有效表征建筑群损失的空间相关性机制。以某大学校园为研究对象的实证结果表明:相较于传统数据增广方法,文章所提出的改进算法生成的模拟数据保真度显著提升;若忽略建筑间损失相关性,易导致区域总损失预测值被低估。模型通过集成物理驱动与数据驱动方法,在保障计算效率的前提下,可有效解决传统方法因样本量不足、空间相关性缺失引发的预测偏差问题,为城市抗震韧性评估提供了全新的技术路径。

    Abstract:

    In this study, we propose an innovative method for developing a regional seismic economic loss prediction model by integrating regional building characteristic parameters with ground motion intensity measures, enabling rapid generation of large-scale seismic loss data to provide reliable data support for regional seismic risk assessment. The research workflow comprises three core modules: foundational data construction, data augmentation, and model development.(1) For foundational data construction, a seismic damage simulation framework is established based on a simplified multidegree-of-freedom structural model considering soil-structure cluster interaction, achieving highprecision calculation of building component damage and loss by following FEMA P-58.(2) For data augmentation, an improved data augmentation algorithm is proposed to address the bottleneck of insufficient sample data in traditional methods by generating high-fidelity simulated loss data through feature space reconstruction and distribution optimization techniques. (3) In model development, a regional loss prediction model based on Gaussian process regression is established, which effectively characterizes spatial correlation mechanisms of building cluster losses by incorporating feature variables, such as building functional type and spatial distribution. Empirical studies conducted on a university campus demonstrate that, compared with traditional data augmentation methods, the improved algorithm considerably enhances the fidelity of simulated data, and that neglecting interbuilding loss correlations may result in the underestimation of total regional loss predictions. Through the integration of physical-and data-driven approaches, this model effectively resolves prediction biases due to sample insufficiency and neglected correlations in traditional data augmentation methods while maintaining computational efficiency, providing a new technical pathway for urban seismic resilience assessment.

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引用本文

张玮洁,苏培阳,吕洋,等 .考虑场地-建筑群地震相互作用的区域地震经济损失预测模型[J].地震工程学报,2026,48(4):950- 958. DOI:10.20000/j.1000-0844.20241107002

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-12
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