To clarify the influence of differential thaw settlement of permafrost foundations on soil pressure at the top of trench-buried pipelines, the soil arching effect induced by relative displacement of the backfill soil is introduced based on Marston's theoretical model of soil pressure on trench-buried pipelines. The circular arc minor principal stress trajectory method is used to determine the lateral earth pressure coefficient of the backfill. A quantitative relationship between the principal stress rotation angle and the thaw settlement of foundation permafrost is established. By combining the inclined thin-layer element method, an equation for calculating the soil pressure at the pipe top is derived, and a computational model for soil pressure at the pipe top under non-cooperative thaw settlement between the pipeline and the permafrost is proposed. Through indoor model test validation and parameter sensitivity analysis, the method is shown to accurately characterize the variation of soil pressure at the pipe top during different stages of permafrost thaw settlement. The thaw settlement of foundation permafrost has a considerable influence on the soil pressure at the pipe top: the coefficient of soil pressure at the pipe top is approximately linearly and positively correlated with the relative thaw settlement of the foundation, with a maximum increase of 41%. As the angle between the differential thaw settlement surface and the horizontal plane increases, the coefficient decreases linearly, with a maximum reduction of 14%. The coefficient increases approximately hyperbolically with the trench-to-pipe width ratio (B/D), and B/D = 4 can serve as the boundary value between trench-buried and aboveground pipelines at different thaw settlement stages. As the burial depth-to-pipe width ratio (H/D) increases, the coefficient initially increases and then stabilizes. For deeply buried pipelines, the backfill in the trench is more likely to form a complete soil arch during thaw settlement, and the influence of thaw settlement on the soil pressure at the pipe top is more pronounced. These findings can provide theoretical support for the assessment of thaw settlement hazards affecting buried pipelines in permafrost regions.